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Black Hat USA 2025

Vulnerability Haruspicy: Picking Out Risk Signals from Scoring System Entrails

August 7 @ 2:30pm PDT

Presented by:
Tod Beardsley

Vulnerability scoring is supposed to bring order to the chaos of risk management, but in practice, it can feel more like reading tarot cards or poking at entrails than applying science. CVSS performs monkey math to force fractal bell curves, EPSS tries to predict exploitation with statistical black magicks, and SSVC ditches math entirely in favor of structured gut feelings.

Meanwhile, defenders mix and match shortcuts — KEV lists, vendor advisories, and lived experience — to separate the truly urgent from the merely annoying. But are we actually making better risk decisions, or just using these frameworks to justify what we were going to do anyway?

This talk will dig into the strengths, weaknesses, and absurdities of CVSS, EPSS, and SSVC, comparing them to the reality of how security teams actually handle vulnerabilities. This talk will explore where these models help, where they mislead, and whether any of them are meaningfully better than rolling a D20 saving throw vs exploitation. Expect debate, disagreements, and plenty of astrology jokes.

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More Great Things From Tod

Reports
Divining Risk: Deciphering Signals From Vulnerability Scores
Vulnerability scores promise clarity, but too often just add to the noise. In this report, we analyze signals from over 270,000 CVEs to reveal what...
runZero Research
CVSS, EPSS, and SSVC: How to Read Between the Vulnerability Scores
Learn about strengths and limitations of each scoring systems – and how to best leverage them inform your triage strategy.
Podcasts
From Vulnerability to Visibility: Rethinking Exposure Management
Learn how exposure management is evolving and how organizations can move from simply identifying vulnerabilities to gaining true visibility and...
Webcasts
Unknown Assets: A Lurking Threat to Network Security
In this EcoCast, presented by Tod Beardsley VP of Security Research, discusses proactive strategies for defending against zero-day exploits and...

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August 4-10, 2025
Join us at Summer Camp 2025!
Join us for a whole week of action at BSides, Black Hat, DEF CON, and more.

We've got six talks to take in and crews in every venue you'll want to visit during a fun-filled Hacker Summer Camp.

Hop aboard a helicopter ride over the Strip, enjoy a rooftop omakase dinner, join us at the House of Blues, or see if you can help us save our Yeti's arctic hacker lair from complete meltdown.

It's going to be an epic week with lots of great adventures!
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